Exports : starting from the 3rd week of November, shipments start to become accumulate and till today remain a dizaster. Quite difficult to find requested space on vessels and so far the rate had been increased by triple at least compare with the September ones. This concerns freight to everywhere and for sure will quite influrence the next months shipments which will continue to be a problem for packers to export and customers to honor their contracts schedule and quantities.
Fob prices still are stable like September and October from 780 to 830 USD/Mt depending on qualities and payment terms. Du to RMB/USD exchange rate (RMB continues to increase against USD since July,- now increased as 6% -). Fob prices are not expected to be lower down for the next months. Possibly will be an increase du to the limited availability of the existing worldwide paste stocks . Strong market tension on other such as aseptic diced tomatoes , various pulps and purees .. even for canned peeled tomatoes !
Quantities : too soon to get the official final bulk exports datas for December exports meanwhile we can guess that it could be less somewhere caused by the logistics troubling situation .Nevertheless we strong believe it should be around 40 000 Mt . Here below paste exports from September till November 2020 with average corresponding Fob prices.
Sept 2020 Bulk 43,693mts average price based on FOB net 786
Oct 2020 Bulk 59,211mts average price based on FOB net 785
Nov 2020 Bulk 68,015mts average price based on FOB net 791
It is too early to talk about it . Nevertheless from now we know that :
- Raw material price level delivered will be increased from 400 RMB/Mt till to 420 RMB/Mt ( new price 0.53 € /mt or 65 $/mt as per current exchange rates )
- steel price is increasing which caused an increase on drum price about 18RMB/drum
- Water price : to agriculture and /or to industries price will be increased by 150% compare with last crop.
So no matter for those bad news including the ones which concern currency exchanges rates and logistic too Fob prices will be maintained stable at the existing level except in case of economical crisis if any. According the World Bank China performed during 2020 with 22 other countries in the world a growth of its domestic product even if the 2% registered are far away from the 7,9 % increase during 2019.
CHINESE 2021 NEW YEAR : offices closed from Feb 10th till Feb 20th 2021