1.Current market situation

Even if the logistics situation came worst and worst starting from middle of Nov 2020, it looks the exports of the tomato paste from September till nowadays were not really influrence quite much .As we can study from the Customs clearance statistics as shows below :

Sept 2020 

Quantity: 43,694mts

Average FOB net price (all mixed brix  including DAF level by train): USD 771

Oct 2020 

Quantity: 59,211mts

Average FOB net price (all mixed brix  including DAF level by train): USD 770

Nov 2020 

Quantity: 68,015mts

Average FOB net price (all mixed brix  including DAF level by train): USD 769

Dec 2020 

Quantity: 50,600mts

Average FOB net price (all mixed brixincluding DAF level by train): USD 772

Totally 221 520Mt

Average FOB net price USD 700 /Mt

RMB/USD exchange rate moved from May 2020  to Feb 2021 from  7,17  to 6,43, against 1 USD means an increase of 10% from crop 2020 concluded orders time till now. This RMB increase caused to packers a big pressure with the management of their exports.

Regarding Jan 2021 – export statistics not yet available – : checking with big players  exports will not be less than 55,000mts for shipments done  by train and/or conventional  vessel used to avoid  the heavy current cost for using sea containers.

Through offers communicated from differents packers the today FOB  value  is between USD790 and USD820/Mt  based on various parameters such as quality ,shipment period and payment terms. There is a possibility  having those FOB value to increase again from April /May after the logistics situation will be back to normal at that moment.

2, Forecasting of crop 2021

According  the WPTC new publication the preliminary  estimation for world 2021 crop size of tomato mentions a global  increase of  the crop size  expected around 4% from last crop results. Americas and Amitom countries look they will pack more than crop 2020 meanwhile China should  be down from 5,9 to 5,4  millions of fresh tomatoes or even less.

From our channel we are with the impression that the 2021 tomato farming in China will face a potential competition  from  good profit crops for farmers such as  cotton , maize and chili. Today most of the players- including COFCO and GUANNONG -have only arranged/signed  for 60-65%  of their last year contracts for fresh tomatoes .

Farmers want  and need  higher price level for their raw material estimated to  460-470RMB/mt, meanwhile  food industries want only to accept  an increase to 420RMB/Mt maximum.

On the top packaging increased  ( drums/aseptic bags )  : new cost will be around USD17/18-Mt.

That’s why  China is not  having for the time being  a clear  picture about its 2021 tomato crops and what will be finally sowed and processed. If  5,2 millions of fresh  tomatoes will be processed  as per existing forecast  we strong believe that crop 2021 net FOB prices will increase to 820-850 per Mt to compensate the lost from the exchange rate, raw material and packaging increases.

Let’s wait for the final exchange between farmers and processors. Further news should be given around middle of coming March.